Resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

On December 10, foreign media reports indicated that Glencore, the world’s largest cobalt producer, has become the first company to export cobalt under the Democratic Republic of the Congo's new quota system. Its trial shipment is currently undergoing quality inspection, marking the country's first resumption of cobalt raw material exports after a 10-month hiatus since the export ban was implemented in February 2025. The first batch of commercial-grade cobalt raw materials is expected to officially arrive at ports in April 2026.

Core event: Export ban lifted + quota system implemented → Cobalt supply resumes.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo, as the world's core cobalt-producing region, accounted for 75.86% of global cobalt production in 2024. The resumption of exports stems from new regulations issued by the country's Strategic Mineral Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) on October 16: the cobalt export quota for the fourth quarter of 2025 is set at 18,125 tons, while the annual export cap from 2026 onward is fixed at 96,600 tons. The government will retain 10% as a strategic reserve (held by STL, a subsidiary of Gécamines, the DRC's state-owned mining company), and companies must prepay a 10% royalty on sales to qualify for export permits.

The quota allocation demonstrates a "dominance by industry leaders" pattern: China Molybdenum (CMOC), leveraging the resource advantages of the Tenke Fungurume mining area, secured a quota of 6,650 tons for the fourth quarter (relevant approval procedures have been initiated). Glencore’s Mutanda and Katanga mining areas (pending certification) were allocated 3,925 tons. Together, these two companies account for 53% of the quarterly export quota, further consolidating industry concentration.

Prices skyrocketed by 247%, with a supply shortfall of 122,000 tons projected for 2026.

The tightening cobalt supply has directly triggered a price surge. As of now, the cobalt price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at $34,550 per ton, marking a sharp increase of 247% from the low of $9,950 per ton on February 2025. In sync with global trends, the domestic Chinese market saw the spot price of electrolytic cobalt climb to 529,000 yuan per ton, while the price of cobalt sulfate exceeded 120,000 yuan per ton, both hitting new highs for the current phase.

Calculations from traders reveal that the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 2026 export quota represents only 44% of its 2024 production. Combined with the continuous expansion of global end-use demand, including new energy vehicles and energy storage batteries, the global cobalt supply shortfall is projected to reach 122,000 tons in 2026. CITIC Securities further forecasts that the global cobalt supply deficit will amount to 122,000 tons in 2025, 88,000 tons in 2026, and 97,000 tons in 2027, indicating a clear long-term upward trend in cobalt prices.

Details of the Quota System: Strengthened Controls Linked to Local Development

The quota system introduced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo includes multiple binding clauses. Companies that fail to fulfill their quotas, violate environmental or tax regulations, or transfer quotas to third parties will have their export qualifications permanently revoked. Future quota adjustments will be linked to the "degree of contribution to the country's strategic projects," with priority given to enterprises establishing high value-added cobalt processing capacities locally. Additionally, quotas approved in December 2025 will be automatically converted into monthly quotas for 2026 to ensure supply stability.

Glencore's current priority in resuming shipments is underpinned by the progress in restarting its Mutanda mine. As the world's largest copper-cobalt mine, Mutanda accounted for one-fifth of global cobalt production in 2018 before operations were suspended in 2019 due to low cobalt prices. Following its restart, the mine is expected to increase cobalt output by 20,000 tons annually, though its full production capacity remains constrained by the quota limits.

Industry Impact: Downstream Battery Manufacturers Urgently Adjust Procurement Strategies

As a key raw material for ternary lithium battery cathodes, the surge in cobalt prices and supply shortages are directly impacting downstream industries. Leading domestic battery manufacturers have disclosed that they are currently addressing the situation through three main strategies: first, signing long-term supply agreements with major quota holders such as Glencore and China Molybdenum to secure core production capacity for 2026-2027; second, optimizing battery formulations by appropriately increasing the proportion of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) routes to reduce reliance on cobalt; and third, expanding overseas cobalt resource investments, with a focus on project collaborations in emerging production regions such as Indonesia and Australia.

For overseas battery manufacturers in Japan, South Korea, and other regions that rely on cobalt imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the additional pressure from rising costs of raw materials such as aluminum has created a "dual cost squeeze." Some companies have already planned to increase battery product prices, with cost pressures gradually being passed down to end-use sectors such as new energy vehicles and consumer electronics.

Global Industry Restructuring: Resource Control Emerges as the Core Competitiveness

Industry experts point out that the implementation of the quota system in the Democratic Republic of the Congo marks a shift in the global cobalt industry from "unregulated supply" to an era of "policy-driven regulation." As the country accounts for nearly 80% of global cobalt production, its export controls will have a long-term impact on global supply and demand dynamics. Currently, companies such as China Molybdenum and Glencore, which have established operations in the DRC's core mining regions, as well as enterprises developing cobalt refining capacity in Indonesia, are poised to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices and quota advantages.

Looking ahead, as the global energy transition accelerates, cobalt demand is expected to maintain robust growth. However, on the supply side, multiple constraints such as quotas, environmental regulations, and geopolitical factors are likely to persist, potentially leading to an expanding supply-demand gap. For enterprises across the industrial chain, reducing cobalt dependency through technological advancements and securing core resource capacity will become critical strategies to navigate market fluctuations.