Copper prices remain resilient amid US-Iran conflict.

April 16 news – International investment bank Citi has released its latest base metals price forecast report, raising its short-term copper price projections while offering differentiated outlooks for other major base metals such as nickel, zinc, lead, and tin. Geopolitical tensions and supply-side risks are cited as the core factors influencing these forecast adjustments.

In terms of copper price forecasts, Citi has adjusted its 0–3 month copper price outlook to $13,000 per ton. The bank noted that risk assets remain broadly affected by the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict, leading to some volatility in market sentiment. However, copper has demonstrated strong resilience on the physical level—even under an extreme scenario involving a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, copper prices are expected to withstand significant downside pressure.

However, Citi emphasized that the short-term copper price of $13,000 per ton is not sustainable over the long term. The bank expects copper prices to gradually retreat to a more sustainable level of approximately $12,000 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2026 and throughout 2027. In its baseline scenario, the global copper market is expected to achieve supply-demand balance at around $12,000 per ton in both 2026 and 2027, a price level considered a reasonable long-term operating midpoint for the copper market.

In addition to copper prices, Citi has also revised its price forecasts for other base metals over the next 0–3 months, showing a clear divergence: nickel has been given a mildly bullish rating, with a target price set at $19,000 per ton; while zinc, lead, and tin have been maintained with neutral ratings, with corresponding target prices of $3,300 per ton, $1,950 per ton, and $50,000 per ton, respectively.

Regarding the mildly bullish rationale for nickel prices, Citi explained that in the short term, nickel is most vulnerable to the risk of supply disruptions caused by sulfur shortages. This is particularly true for Indonesia's High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) projects, whose production processes are heavily dependent on sulfur. The current uncertainty surrounding sulfur supply further reinforces the upside support for nickel prices.