Chile's lithium carbonate exports decline

According to the latest data released by Chile, in August, Chile's lithium exports reached 18,145 tons, of which lithium carbonate exports showed a significant decline, only 16,112 tons, down 20% from the previous month, but also down 11%. This data change not only reflects the dynamics of the Chilean lithium carbonate export market, but also indicates that the global lithium carbonate supply pattern, especially in the Chinese market, may be changing.

It is worth noting that Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China account for a significant portion of its total exports. In August, Chile exported 12,143 tons of lithium carbonate to China, which was 22.8% lower than the previous month and 6% lower than the same period last year. In the context of China's domestic lithium carbonate supply has been relatively sufficient, inventory backlog, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China for four consecutive months of decline, no doubt to the Chinese market has brought new challenges and thinking.

Considering that the average time for shipping from Chile to China is about 36-47 days, this time difference makes Chile's export data an important indicator for predicting the scale of China's lithium carbonate imports in the coming months. Since Chile's exports account for about 80% of China's imports of lithium carbonate, the change in its export quantity will directly affect the supply of lithium carbonate in the Chinese market.

Based on the current data and the shipping time difference, we speculate that the scale of China's lithium carbonate imports in September and October may be lowered. This forecast is not only based on the reduction in the number of Chilean exports, but also closely related to the supply and demand situation in the Chinese domestic market. In the context of sufficient domestic supply and relatively stable demand, the reduction in imports may further intensify the competitive situation in the domestic market, prompting enterprises to accelerate destocking and adjust production strategies.

In addition, the decline in Chilean lithium carbonate exports may also trigger a series of chain reactions. On the one hand, it may encourage Chinese enterprises to more actively seek diversified import channels to reduce the risk of dependence on a single market; On the other hand, it may also promote the further development and technological innovation of China's domestic lithium carbonate industry to meet the growing market demand.